Prediction tool for critical care bed occupancy – “Critical Planner”

In 2017, Edge Health developed a prediction tool for critical care bed occupancy at a digital exemplar Foundation Trust. The prediction tool employed a range of statistical, econometric and machine learning techniques based on patient-level demographic, co-morbidity and procedural data.

Our work enabled the hospital to predict bed occupancy and “spikes” in demand with a high degree of accuracy. Going forward, this tool will be used to identify potential pressures on critical care bed capacity resulting from planned operations, so that mitigating actions can be taken well in advance – i.e. allowing the trust to rebook operations or change staffing ratios. The tool is user friendly and is presented using an interactive web application, which allows staff to enter the patient’s information and get an accurate estimate of their length of stay as well as the likely variation in this prediction.

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Critical Planner is our artificial intelligence solution which helps prevent hospitals from cancelling major operations due to lack of critical care bed capacity. Using predictive analytics, Critical Planner estimates length of stay based ahead of operations taking place, so that peaks in demand can be spotted in advance and complex surgeries rescheduled – not cancelled.

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Critical care photo image credit: Tamil Nadu College