Published 7 September 2020
Edge Health analysis originally published by the HSJ
Revealed: the region where 1 in 4 of the population could be waiting for hospital care by April; George Batchelor; 10th August 2020
The NHS entered the Covid-19 crisis, with over 4.4 million people on the waiting lists for NHS funded treatment – about 8% of the population. As of May 2020, these people have waited for a collective 52 million weeks. For over 26,000 people it has been more than a year.
Relative to last year, there have been just under three million fewer referrals for treatment. When combined with some activity happening during the crisis period, the waiting list has got shorter. This drop in the size of the waiting list is temporary.
Productivity in operating theatres has also fallen with fewer cases per day – the time taken to get people in and operate has increased partly due to infection control measures. There has also been a shift to a higher proportion of urgent and complex activity that can take longer. Numbers are small, but theatre time in some areas increased by over 50% since March.
It is unclear if the whack-a-mole Covid-19 containment strategy will be able to prevent a second wave forming before winter. So, NHS England has set very challenging activity-based targets for trusts to achieve during the “window of opportunity” over the next few months (e.g. 90% of pre-Covid-19 activity levels by October 2020).
Edge Health analysis of the NHS England assumptions on the activity that should be completed over the next few months shows that the size of the waiting list could still grow to 8.4 million if targets are met, and all "Missing-In-Covid-19” activity returns over the next few months.