Trying to understand the potential impact of Covid-19 on the NHS

We are publishing a regular update to our work on Covid-19. Other posts can be found here.

For further information please contact George on 07980804956 or [email protected]

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Reported Covid-19 cases are now rising sharply in the UK. It remains unclear how many people may become infected in total, although we estimate there could be over 700 by the end of the week and just below 10,000 by the end of March if there are no mitigating actions.

Given the potential impact this could have on the NHS, I wanted to share with you some initial analysis that we have done. I hope this will be a helpful input into your contingency planning should the infection become more widely spread.

If this is helpful, I will share future updates as our understanding evolves. This would include new scenarios, such as restricting transport or school closures.

Please do let me know if there is something that we have not picked up in our modelling, or which you think needs to be considered in future iterations – you will appreciate that this has been developed at some pace.

I am also happy to discuss further support, such as on bed demand and capacity modelling if you think that would be useful for your organisation.