Covid-19 tracking research and projections
Reported Covid-19 case numbers are a fraction of the total as many are undetected or unreported. Our Covid-19 tracking tool uses advanced analytics to estimate total cases, and project these using the latest information (updated weekly on a Friday).
Our estimated case numbers, which are available by region, are then used to project expected hospitalisations and deaths from Covid-19. Through our published research, we explore drives of the spread of Covid-19 and simulate different scenarios - read more here.
While we take care to ensure that our numbers are correct, they are estimations and projections. If you have any feedback, please do contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Learn more about trends and patterns in the spread and impact of Covid-19 in England
Track actual case numbers
Our tracking research estimates total Covid-19 case numbers, rather than just reported cases.
Using latest estimates of Rt from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, we project case numbers. We often explore different scenarios in our research and on request.
Using projected case numbers, we use updated conversion rates to understand the potential impact on hospitalisation numbers.
Projections are also provided for deaths due to Covid-19. These do not include deaths that are indirectly caused by Covid-19, such as from missed diagnosis or treatment of other medical conditions.
Explore our Covid-19 tracking research
All of our research on Covid-19 can be found here. Some highlights of our Covid-19 tracking research are summarised below.
When will we see the effect of the vaccination programme?An impressive 5 million people have now had their first shot of a vaccine in the UK. But when will we start to see the effect?
The last lockdown?No one wanted to start 2021 with a national lockdown, but it was necessary to reduce the pressure mounting on the NHS.
Increasing cases before ChristmasNearly 17,000 people were admitted to hospital yesterday compared to 14,000 when the November lockdown started. This alone would be worrying
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