Regional impact of London distancing

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The HSJ has reported that Northwick Park in London has declared a critical incident due to a surge in Covid-19 patients and no critical care bed capacity.

This is earlier than projected for London as a whole (see the regional tracker we have built, accessible here). But it emphasises how the situation will vary from hospital to hospital, depending on their size, how each is able to free-up capacity, and the steps each takes to maximise the effectiveness of their highest dependency beds.

London appears to be two-weeks ahead of other parts of the country. From what I have heard from friends and clients, a lot of the hospitals outside of London feel eerily quiet. The map below shows our mortality index (based on published data and largely driven by population age).

This shows most hotspots are outside of the capital. Hopefully, social distancing will turn the tide on the growth rate and give the NHS a chance to prepare, although as outlined yesterday it sounds more like the social distancing is actually London distancing. Not quite the same thing.The HSJ has reported that Northwick Park in London has declared a critical incident due to a surge in Covid-19 patients and no critical care bed capacity.